Tectonic geopolitical shifts and what they mean for Europe
Two distinct images went simultaneously around the world this past weekend: whilst government leaders and heads of state were gathered in the magnificently restored Notre Dame cathedral in Paris to celebrate its reopening after the devastating fire of 2019, men on pickup trucks firing AK-47’s whilst shouting ‘alaha akbar’ were gathering on the squares and in the streets of Damascus to claim power and to celebrate their lightning speed overthrow of President Assad and his longtime oppressive regime.
These two major events, seemingly unrelated, could not be more important in their highly symbolic meaning for the state in which the world finds itself today because of the major geopolitical realignment longer in the making and supercharged by the recent re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, as I already discussed in detail in my November 17 essay on the US elections and Europe.
Paris
The Notre Dame cathedral once again opening its doors and the way in which this was celebrated on December 6th is a very powerful symbol of the resilience of Western Civilization: despite the rapid secularization of the West and its own best efforts to push its Christian identity to the background, of all institutions it was the currently so hopelessly dysfunctional laicist French government under President Emanuel Macron that led the impressive five-year effort to restore to full glory this almost 1000-year old icon of the Catholic faith and of European art, bringing together the talents and generosity of 2000 craftsmen- and women and 360.000 benefactors from around the world. The political symbolism of president-elect Donald Trump being treated as the most important guest and a respected head of state – placed on the first row between the French president and his wife – was powerfully illustrative of how the man until recently openly reviled in most European capitals is now a powerful political reality that all will have to accept and deal with constructively. Clearly, France’s President Macron wanted to be the first one to do so on the world stage and in front of tens of millions of viewers on all continents.
What we also witnessed on December 6th, 2024, was that Europe is still capable to rise to greatness as a Civilization and to set an inspiring example of how with united efforts and dedication – secular, religious, state, church and citizen – we can still peacefully complete grand human achievements that will be a source of inspiration and hope for generations to come. What those men and women involved with both the firefighting and the restoration of the Notre Dame cathedral taught us Europeans is the virtue of ‘dynamis’ – the will to fight, a term coined by Alexander the Great to describe the indominable spirit of his victorious army and the achievements they made.
Damascus
Whilst Paris was in a celebratory mood with full international attention, Damascus was equally in the spotlight as Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), a terrorist group designated as such by the US, the EU and the UN, swept through Damascus to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad one week after Aleppo was surprisingly taken by the same Islamist fighters. Here the symbolism was on full public display in the famous Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, where Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of HTS who remains on the terror-watchlist, was welcomed as a hero when making a victory speech to the assembled crowd (reminding us of another such moment only 10 years ago, when Abu Baker al-Bagdadi, then leader of ISIS, in July 2014 in the Great Mosque of al-Nuri in Mosul declared an ‘Islamic Caliphate’ covering large parts of Syria and Iraq).
The swiftness of the overthrow of Assad took most by surprise and whilst the United States under Joe Biden is claiming part of the credit for this development, there is also deep concern in Washington and elsewhere that the sudden power vacuum left behind, whilst disparate militant and jihadist groups with varying international backers vie for power, well-organized Islamists could once again take over like they have done elsewhere whilst establishing new forms of oppression. One wonders whether the UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen’s statement on Sunday that “today we look forward with cautious hope to the opening of a new one — one of peace, reconciliation, dignity and inclusion for all Syrians”was not premature?
We have all been witnessing the prolonged bloodshed, sectarianism and destruction in Iraq, Libya and Sudan ever since their respective dictators were toppled. In an interview aired on Sunday by CNN with HTS leader al-Jolani, we see next to the Syrian opposition flag the same jihadist flag flanking him that is used by ISIS, only having changed the color scheme from white letters on black to black letters on white. We see the same two flags appearing behind the desk of the new transitional Syrian Prime Minster, Mohammed al-Bashir. It is all part of a carefully planned and smartly executed re-branding process by HTS that should put us on high alert, especially Western political leaders who have little understanding of the dynamics at work here.
Ukraine
The fall of Damascus to yet another Islamist group is symbolic in many ways, but most relevant at this moment for Europe and the United States is the role Russia played in all of this. It should be clear that with Russia having been together with Iran the main power propping up the Assad regime until only one week ago, the fall of that same regime would not have been possible were it not for Putin deciding to suddenly pull out of whatever protection deal he had made with the Syrian ruler. This follows a pattern. For example, Russia, as the longtime ‘protector’ of Armenia abandoned this country and its leadership last year, directly enabling the overtaking by Azerbaijan of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and the resulting exodus of its complete Christian population. Even more problematic for Europe at this point however is that Russia stopping its military and political aid to Syria will also allow it to divert more resources to its war on Ukraine, thus helping to create facts on the ground that it hopes will be favorable for a peace deal that is expected to be negotiated once the new Trump team takes over in Washington We should also be fully aware, as I already noted in my November 17 commentary, that no deal with the current Russian regime can be expected to last very long or even be respected from the start. The actions of Putin around Syria these past weeks are therefore yet another reason for Europe to prepare itself for more, not less, aggression coming from Russia, in whatever shape or form. Russia’s main ally China also seems up to not much good: according to latest reports the largest Chinese naval fleet in decades has these past days been deployed around Taiwan. For what purpose?
Obviously, the lame duck season between an incapacitated outgoing and a not yet installed new US administration is being used to its fullest extent by all.
It is the dynamis mentioned above that Europe is going to desperately need to deal with a fast-changing geopolitical order and new existential threats. As the rebuilding of the Notre Dame showed us in a powerfully symbolic way, Europe has what it takes to do so. It only needs to will it and to act now taking full responsibility for its own fate.